The Hispanic Institute

HIRC Struggles Show Immigration's Failure as a Campaign '08 Wedge Issue

When the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007 was defeated, it appeared that immigration would be a major issue of the 2008 campaign.  The Bill drew opposition from Democrats and Republicans but galvanized right wing pundits and bloggers , who strongly opposed any type of amnesty for undocumented aliens.  

As election day dawns, it is clear that immigration failed to draw the voting public's attention as it did last year.  It was discussed during the primary season but was never mentioned in any of the three debates between John McCain and Barack Obama, thought both candidates made strong efforts to court the Hispanic vote.

Further proof can be seen in the status of House Immigration Reform Caucus members in elections nationwide.  The caucus, which was formed by anti-immigration firebrand Tom Tancredo (R-CO) in 1999, had grown to 110 members by 2007.  It strongly opposes any form of amnesty and has proposed laws which would deny citizenship to native-born children of illegal immigrants.

Today, a significant percentage of HIRC members are facing tough re-election races.  A "death list" of House races circulated within GOP circles lists at least four HIRC members in its "likely gone" category , with another ten or so facing tough re-election battles.  University of Virginia Political Science Professor Larry Sabato's latest ratings lists 11 seats held by HIRC members as "sure losses," a couple more as "tossups" and over a dozen more as "shaky but likely to be held" by HIRC incumbents.  

This means the HIRC, which saw leaders Tancredo and Duncan Hunter retire after failed runs for the GOP presidential nomination, could lose 10% of its membership.  If a Democratic wave takes shape on Tuesday, that percentage could double.

Here are some races to watch:

1.  Wyoming-AL.  This seat was held by HIRCer Barbara Cubin, who decided to retire.  It's considered a toss-up between Democrat Gary Trauner and Republican Cynthia Lummis.  This is also Dick Cheney's old seat and it has drawn a lot of money from outside the state because of its symbolic value.

2.  Minnesota 6th.  Incumbent and HIRC member Michelle Bachmann was leading challenger El Tinklenberg until she appeared on MSNBC's "Hardball" and accused several Democratic Congressional member of being "un-American."  Left bloggers helped raise almost $500,000 in the next 24 hours.  That sum and a large contribution from the DCCC helped Tinklenberg flip the race in his favor in a matter of days.  Bachmann claims to have received a sizable sum from conservative groups, which makes this one of the most watched Congressional races nationwide.  

3.  Kansas, 2nd.  Freshman Democrat Nancy Boyda is one of only six Democrats in the HIRC.  She's been leading in the polls throughout the fall, but faces a tough challenge from Republican Lynn Jenkins.

4. Arizona, 3rd.  Incumbent Republican and HIRCer John Shadegg faces a tough challenge from Democrat Bob Lord.  Shadegg is favored but an upset would remove one of the Republican Party's House leaders.

5.  Virginia, 5th.  Incumbent Virgil Goode made headlines in recent years for opposing legal immigration and has referred to Hispanic immigrants as "invaders from south of the border."  His seat was considered safe but recent polling has shown Goode polling under 50% and losing ground to challenger Tom Perreillo.

6.  California, 50th.  This is HIRC Chairman Brian Bilbray's seat.  He's considered a favorite but is far from a shoo-in.

 

 

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