• The Four Groups That Will Decide the Presidential Race

    November 07, 2016 17:03:pm

    -- by Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic:

    For all the turmoil, turbulence, and sheer reality-show melodrama of the 2016 presidential campaign, the actual results appear more likely to deepen long-standing trends in the electorate than to shatter them.

    That’s been one of the paradoxes of this extraordinary election year. With both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton facing unfavorable opinions from a majority of the voters, this has been a demolition derby of a campaign that has left both sides sputtering toward the finish line with dented fenders and cracked windshields. Yet a race that has unfolded like no other still appears on track to reinforce and intensify the trends that have defined the competition for the White House over the past quarter-century.

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  • 2016: The Year Latinos Saved America?

    November 07, 2016 16:59:pm

    -- from The Atlantic:

    Two of my long-time, politically well-experienced friends have been in Nevada recently, doing get-out-the-vote work. Independently, each hasjust sent me a note saying that their experience and observations matchwhat the Jon “the sage of Nevada” Ralston has been reporting:Namely, a huge surge in early voting among Democrats and especially Latinos in Nevada, which bodes very negatively for Donald Trump’s prospects there and by implication elsewhere.

    From one of them:

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  • Latino Early Vote Surges From Florida to Nevada

    November 04, 2016 19:37:pm

    -- by Lauren Fox, TalkingPointsMemo.com:

    Latino voters are already showing up to vote this election and could cast ballots in larger numbers than Democrats saw in recent elections.

    On a call with reporters Friday, Latino Decisions– a polling group focused on Hispanic voting patters– said that Latino turnout is on trackto make history next week.

    On the call, Gabriel Sanchez, a principal at Latino Decisions, pointed to early voting trends that show Latino early voting is up 100 percent in Florida, 60 percent in North Carolina and up 25 percent in Colorado and Nevada.

    Sanchez said at this point, Latino Decisions is projecting that between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote on or before Tuesday– a major increase from 2012 numbers when the group estimated 11.2 million voted.

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  • Early Voting by Latinos May Help Clinton in Several States

    November 04, 2016 02:50:am

    -- by John Wagner, Anne Gearan and Jose A. DelReal, The Washington Post:

    Even as the electoral map shows new signs of volatility, a surge in early voting by Latinos is bolstering Hillary Clinton’s prospects in battleground states including Arizona, Florida and Nevada in the closing days of a tightened race against Donald Trump.

    Freshelection data suggest that the Democratic nominee appears to be benefiting from upticks in participation by Latinos, who historically vote in lower numbers than the electorate overall. The trend, say advocates seeking to expand the Hispanic vote, is largely motivated by distaste for Trump, who has proposed hardline immigration policies and stirred emotions from the outset of his campaign with a series of controversial statements about Mexicans and other Latinos.

    “TheTrump candidacy and the climate it’s created has really heightened the importance and the personal nature of this election for Latinos,” said Yvanna Cancela, political director of Culinary Workers Union 226, which represents casino workers in Nevada.

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  • Clinton's 30 Point Lead in Florida Hispanic Poll is "Terrifying" to GOP Nationwide

    November 04, 2016 02:36:am

    -- by Marc Caputo, Politico.com:

    Hillary Clinton is besting Donald Trump by an historic 30-point margin among Florida Hispanics, according to a new bipartisan poll that indicates Latinos could play an outsized role in delivering the White House to a Democrat for the third election in a row.

    Clinton’s 60 percent to 30 percent advantage over Trump withFlorida Hispanics overall is fueled by outsized support from voters of Puerto Rican descent, who favor her 71 perccent to 19 percent, accordingto the surveyof 800 likely Hispanic voters jointly conducted for Univision by Republican-leaning Tarrance Group and Democratic-leaning Bendixen & Amandi International.

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  • Arizona Leads Nation in Early Voting Surge by Latinos

    November 04, 2016 02:33:am

    -- by Daniel Gonzalez, The Arizona Republic:

    Arizona has seen the largest increase of early voting by Latinos of any state.

    Asof Oct. 30, nine days before the Nov. 8 election, 13 percent of the early ballots cast in Arizona came from Latino voters, up from 11 percent at the same point prior to the 2012 presidential election and from 8 percent in 2008.

    The increase from 2012 to 2016 is the largest increase in early voting by Latinos in any state, according to statistics compiled by Catalist, a data company that works with progressive candidates and groups.

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  • Mexican-Americans Are Reshaping the Electoral Map in Arizona - and the U.S.

    November 02, 2016 15:26:pm

    -- by Farai Chideya, FiveThirtyEight.com:

    In an office suite not far from the airport, Irma Maldonado, 18, expertly role-played what she’d be doing on the city’s streets in half an hour: knocking on the doors of residents and exhorting them to vote. But not everything was a game. Before a group of young canvassers headedout for the day, a team leader at the community organizing group LUCHA mentioned that someone had earlier pulled a gun on two members of the team.

    “Everything was OK,” the organizer said, but Maldonado and the 15 or so other teens and 20-somethings were given safety whistles before hitting the streets.

    Maldonado has a personal stake in America’s immigration debate, whichhas been making headlines throughout the election, particularly becauseof Donald Trump’s description of Mexicans as rapists and his desire to have Mexico pay for a border wall.

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  • Inside One Group's Fight to Turn Out Latino Voters and Stop Trump

    November 01, 2016 11:05:am

    -- by Lauren Fox, TPM:

    When 19-year-old Miriam Cadenas knocks doors in North Las Vegas, she will occasionally let the Hispanic voters she's meeting in on a little secret.

    “I’m doing this because I can’t vote," Cadenas tells them. "My voice is pretty silent right now, but my voice is protected through you so if Iget you to go out to vote and vote for the right people then I might not lose my DACA and I could be less scared of my future and the future of my family.”

    Cadenas is a DREAMer, an immigrant who walked across the border illegally when she was 8 years old and can't vote in the upcoming election. She has DACA, a special status that allows her to work and live without immediate fear of deportation, and a list of voters who she's trying to convince to vote for Hillary Clinton.

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  • Texas Sees a Surge in Latino Voters

    October 26, 2016 12:44:pm

    -- by R.G. Ratcliffe, Texas Monthly:

    Throughout this election, I’ve been skeptical that Hillary Clinton could carry Texas, even as polls suggested the gap in support between her and Donald Trump is closing. But there is a wild card that might make it possible: There are 532,000 more registered Hispanic surname voters this year than in 2012.

    Over the past week or so, one news story after another has touted the close race between Clinton and Trump in Texas. The gap has closed,but Clinton seems to be stuck at the same level of support that President Obama received in his 2008 and 2012 campaigns. Obama received just under 44 percent of the vote in 2008 and 41 percent in 2012. Clinton received 43 percent in the CBS/YouGov poll; 41 percent in the UPI/CVOTER; 46 percent in Washington Post/Survey Monkey; and 38 percent in the University of Houston poll. All the while, Trump’s numbers have declinedin Texas from a solid majority to levels in the mid 40s. Three out of the four recent surveys put the gap between Clinton and Trump within themargin of error. Trump’s gaffes and personal history have led to votersfleeing his campaign.

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  • Arizona: Arpaio Officially Charged with Criminal Contempt Amid Re-election Race

    October 26, 2016 12:42:pm

    -- by Jacques Billeaud, The Associated Press:

    Thelongtime sheriff of metropolitan Phoenix has been charged with criminalcontempt-of-court for ignoring a judge's order in a racial-profiling case, leaving the 84-year-old lawman in a tough spot two weeks before Election Day as he seeks a seventh term.

    TheU.S. Department of Justice promised two weeks ago that it would prosecute Sheriff Joe Arpaio, but the misdemeanor count wasn't officially filed against him until Tuesday, when U.S. District Judge Susan Bolton signed it.

    Arpaio could face up to six months in jail if convicted. A misdemeanor conviction would not bar Arpaio from serving as sheriff.

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